The Greek Game: Dominance or Chicken, Fear or Reason?

First, I'd like to say what a pleasure it is to elicit such a thoughtful counter-analysis to my original depiction of the Greek game from  Frances Coppola.

Here are my thoughts on whether there is any substantive disagreement between us.

First, on the consequences of any outcome, I think we're in agreement. I've shown these below in a reduced form game matrix which is often more intuitive to analyse than the extensive form that I used last time.